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Research note 003AI powerSourced

AI doesn't need another narrative. It needs power.

The interesting claim is not that solar powers AI.

Published
07 SEPT 2026
Reading time
4 min
Sources cited
02

Two independently documented facts sit either side of this argument. Neither of them is about Sunrun.

First, demand. The Department of Energy reports that US data centres consumed approximately 4.4% of total US electricity in 2023, with modelling estimating approximately 6.7% to 12% by 2028.

ProjectionSource 01

Second, supply timing. Berkeley Lab reports roughly 8,200 active projects seeking interconnection at the end of 2025 — 1,312 GW of generation and approximately 749 GW of storage, more than 2,060 GW combined. For projects reaching commercial operation in 2025, the median time from interconnection request to operation exceeded five years in regions with available data.

ProjectionSource 02

AI moves faster than substations.

Distributed resources do not remove the need for transmission, power stations and grid upgrades. They may help bridge part of the gap using assets that already sit behind meters. The framing we would defend is not that solar powers AI, but that an existing distributed fleet might create usable capacity faster than new infrastructure can be built.

The Long Run's interpretation

Sources

  1. Source 01

    DOE Data centre demand

    Report Evaluating the Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers

    Dec 2024Government

  2. Source 02

    LBNL Queued Up 2026

    Queued Up: 2026 Edition - Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2025

    2026 editionNational laboratory

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